Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
